Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 470 · LAS → DTW

departs 9:59 AM PT · arrives 4:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 470 · LAS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?