Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

DL 485 · KOA → SEA

departs 9:55 PM HT · arrives 6:46 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ 9pm departures from KOA are usually not late

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 485 · KOA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?