Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 651 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 651 · ATL → DTW

departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 651 · ATL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?