Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 689 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 689 · LAS → JFK

departs 3:36 PM PT · arrives 11:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 689 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?