Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 826 LANDED 10:07 PM PT, ~13 MIN EARLY

Friday, October 2

DL 826 · ATL → SNA

took off 9:07 PM ET · landed 10:07 PM PT (scheduled 8:59 PM ET → 10:25 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 826 · ATL → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?