Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 858 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

DL 858 · LAX → BNA

departs 6:31 PM PT · arrives 12:33 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 858 · LAX → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?