Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 864 · LAS → DTW

departs 5:50 AM PT · arrives 12:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LAS are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 864 · LAS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?