Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
F9 1542 · MCO → PHL
departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 11:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 20%
Thu 10/8 14%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.