Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 1581 · RIC → DEN
departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 33%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.