Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1850 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

F9 1850 · SFO → LAS

departs 3:43 PM PT · arrives 5:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1850 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?