Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 2730 · TPA → RDU
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 1:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Thu 10/8 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
12%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
12%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
11am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.