Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3440 LANDED 8:28 PM MT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

F9 3440 · SFO → DEN

took off 5:20 PM PT · landed 8:28 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3440 · SFO → DEN

Odds over time