Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 3856 · MCO → PHL
departs 11:59 AM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 21%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.