Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3976 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

F9 3976 · ATL → MCO

departs 12:42 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3976 · ATL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?