Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 4173 · PHL → MCO
departs 12:46 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.