Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4409 LANDED 10:58 PM ET, ~22 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

F9 4409 · IAD → ATL

took off 9:37 PM ET · landed 10:58 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.27 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4409 · IAD → ATL

Odds over time