Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2115 LANDED 12:08 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

G4 2115 · SBN → FLL

took off 9:36 PM ET · landed 12:08 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ FLL is quiet at that time

↓ SBN is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2115 · SBN → FLL

Odds over time