Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 2468 · PGD → SWF
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SWF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SWF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SWF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SWF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from PGD are often late
↓
SWF usually runs smoothly
↓
PGD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PGD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SWF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.