Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 261 · AVL → PIE
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 40%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PIE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIE?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIE
↑
Arrivals into PIE at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
↓
AVL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PIE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.