Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 2689 · PIE → SDF
departs 12:03 PM ET · arrives 2:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PIE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day
↑
12pm departures from PIE are often late
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIE (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.