Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 2816 · TOL → SFB
departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Fri 10/9 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave TOL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TOL that day
↓
TOL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TOL (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.44 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 1.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.