Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 2828 · SFB → EYW
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 2:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
25%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
25%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
1pm departures from SFB are often late
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
↓
SFB is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 1.04 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.