Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
G4 2859 · PIA → SFB
departs 7:42 PM CT · arrives 11:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at PIA that day
↓
PIA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 1.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.