Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2973 LANDED 11:51 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

G4 2973 · SFB → LCK

took off 10:11 PM ET · landed 11:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LCK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into LCK at that hour are usually not late

↓ LCK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.04 in

LCK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2973 · SFB → LCK

Odds over time