Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 3012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 3012 · SRQ → LEX
departs 7:31 AM ET · arrives 9:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LEX that day
↑
Other factors
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
7am departures from SRQ are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LEX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.