Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 403 LANDED 11:11 PM ET, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

G4 403 · SRQ → CVG

took off 9:18 PM ET · landed 11:11 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ SRQ usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 403 · SRQ → CVG

Odds over time