Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 421 · PIE → CVG
departs 9:03 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 46%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PIE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from PIE are often late
↑
G4's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIE (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.