Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

G4 509 · DSM → FLL

departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 8:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 509 · DSM → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?