Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 511 · FLL → SDF
departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Fri 10/9 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.