Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 535 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

G4 535 · FLL → XNA

departs 2:08 PM ET · arrives 3:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ FLL is quiet at that time

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

XNA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 535 · FLL → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?