Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 562 LANDED 11:10 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

G4 562 · JAX → GRR

took off 9:19 PM ET · landed 11:10 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.86 in

GRR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 562 · JAX → GRR

Odds over time