Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3383 · BNA → ORD
departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.