Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3383 · ORD → BNA
departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±1 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.