Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3402 · DFW → AUS

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 6:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

AUS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3402 · DFW → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?