Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3409 · BDL → ORD
departs 5:22 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↑
5pm departures from BDL are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.