Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
MQ 3409 · ORD → BDL
departs 1:28 PM CT · arrives 4:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 23%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into BDL at that hour are often late
↓
BDL usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4.71429 mi Precip 0.24 in
BDL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.