Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3421 · CMI → ORD
departs 6:04 AM CT · arrives 7:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 20%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CMI are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMI (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.