Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3469 · BHM → DFW
departs 12:23 PM CT · arrives 2:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 56%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.