Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3470 · CMH → BOS

departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CMH that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.39 in

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3470 · CMH → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?