Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3471 · ICT → ORD
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 8:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.