Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3475 · CMI → DFW
departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 5:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
CMI usually runs smoothly
↓
2pm departures from CMI are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMI (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.