Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3475 · DFW → CMI
departs 12:09 PM CT · arrives 2:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at CMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Arrivals into CMI at that hour are usually not late
↓
CMI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
CMI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.