Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3476 · ORD → CMI
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 11:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMI that day
↓
CMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
CMI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.