Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3477 · ORD → CMI
departs 4:52 PM CT · arrives 5:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 10%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at CMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMI?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
CMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
CMI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.