Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3485 · CRP → DFW
departs 4:15 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
CRP usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CRP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.11 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.