Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3488 · CVG → ORD
departs 12:04 PM ET · arrives 12:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.