Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3491 · CWA → ORD
departs 10:03 AM CT · arrives 11:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CWA
↓
10am departures from CWA are usually not late
Weather at each end
CWA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.