Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
MQ 3495 · DSM → DFW
departs 9:41 AM CT · arrives 11:48 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.