Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3504 · DFW → ELP
departs 4:16 PM CT · arrives 5:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 52%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
ELP is prone to delays
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.