Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3504 · ELP → DFW
departs 5:32 PM MT · arrives 8:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.